Kona is Calling...

Friday was my birthday. My parents were great enough to give me a cool present as well as a card in which my Dad wrote, "Kona is Calling..." After 2 Ironman and multiple years of racing local and regional triathlons, I am excited to say this year (in regards to triathlon), is about qualifying for the World Championships at my key race, Ironman Coeur D'Alene. The race is in June. I start organized training this coming Monday. I've been staying active in the off season, but am excited to get back into an organized routine.

Qualifying at this particular race has proved to be especially hard in previous years. Look at last year's results for instance. The winner in my age group went 9:05. That was good for 9th...Overall...including professionals. There are typically 6 to 7 slots made available in my age group at this race each year. Last year the final spot was awarded to Trevor (I know right?) Blackwell, who went a 9:46. This is just under an hour faster than my time in Canada. Granted, not the same course and conditions (at least for me) were miserable in IMC. The key ingredient for all these qualifiers? The all ran sub 3:20 on the marathon (except one competitor that ran 3:23). This over 30 minutes faster than what I ran at Canada.

Is this possible? Damn right it is. I'm actually quietly confident with my run. As long as my asthma cooperates, I'm confident I will be ready to run between 3:15 and 3:30. What I need to concentrate on is my bike. I feel like I got stronger on the bike this past year, but regressed in my races (on the bike). So, this year is devoted to Ironman. I'm getting a truly professional bike fit (thanks guys!!), hiring a coach, and not getting married or moving (hopefully not moving :)). I've wanted to race in Kona since I was a little boy. And like my Dad, I want to become a "sunshine finisher." This year I will attempt to make these dreams come true. I will try and stay focused throughout the year without losing focus. I will continue to rely on my *army* to keep my grounded and encouraged. It all begins Monday.

Kona is calling...

-T

The Big Easy

First off, congrats to Macca and Mirinda Carfrae on their wins last weekend. The men's race was something special. I spent the entire day watching the race while I picked up and cleaned the house. Hats off to Macca. I mentioned in my prediction post to not overlook this guy, but what he did, especially holding off Raelert after being caught...amazing. That night I went to bed with my sore throat and cough setting my alarm early to get up and head down to the Portland Marathon. My friend Jer was racing and I had committed to pacing him the last 7 miles or so. I was not well and the weather was terrible. That being said, what a blast to help my friend to a PR! This is the second time I have helped pace someone, last time being a full half marathon. I enjoy helping people reach their goals that I might look to get into pacing down the road...

The rest of the weekend was spent resting up as I definitely was fighting off a cold. I finally started to feel better towards Wednesday. As luck would have it, as I started to feel good, Meghan started feeling bad. Wednesday night we took the red eye out to New Orleans for a friends' wedding. We actually had a great time in New Orleans, sans the extreme drinking that most normally associate the big easy with. Fact is, neither of us, especially Meg was up to that kind of partying. Instead we took in some sights and I worked out every day. It ended up being a great trip! We are back in Oregon and looking forward to not taking anymore trips for some time. This has been a busy year, time to unwind some. Thanks for taking the time to read,

-T

Kona Predictions

Each year, I enjoy putting together my Kona predictions. You see, Kona is our super bowl. The world championships of Ironman triathlon is held each year on the big island. For the past few years, it seems like the field continues to get stronger and the race more difficult to predict, although Crowie (Craig Alexander) has won the last two men's titles, and Chrissie (Wellington) has won the last three women's titles so what do I know? Last year I predicted a mixed bag of results...Whether right or wrong, I enjoy predicting so here it goes.

Women's race:

Hard to argue that Chrissie won't 4 peat. And I won't. I do think that her and Julie Dibens will enter T2 within a few minutes. Actually, I think there is a possibility that Dibens leads the race into the run. I'm still picking Chrissie to win. I do think Dibens is going to put together a good race, but I think she will end up 3rd in her first appearance. I like Mirinda Carfrae to give it a go again on the run. Last year she out ran Chrissie by over 6 minutes, but lost over 20 on the bike. She has worked a lot on her bike and looks to be in good form. Mirinda recently tuned up for the big dance with a win at 70.3 Muskoka. She ran away from the competition with a 1:18 half marathon split. You then look at Chrissie's last race at 70.3 Timberland, just a month after setting a world record at the Iron distance in Roth, and she was right there with Mirinda's split posting a 1:19 half marathon. On top of that, Chrissie has said she is stronger in the swim, on the bike, and on the run. Watch out ladies.

A few dark horses for me are:
* Linsey Corbin - broke through and won at IMCDA. New coach in Matt Dixon. She has the run and has been working hard on the swim and bike. Not being allowed wetsuits really hurts her chances, but she should have a shot at top 5.
* Tereza Macel can swim and ride with the best of them despite crazy amounts of training and racing, but had difficulty on the run last year, look for her to be in the mix.
* Virginia B - 3rd a year ago, but appears off form this year.

The men's race:
What can you say? How about loaded!! What a field.
* Craig Alexander - On form. Feels like he peaked too early last year and was trying to avoid that this year. His 2010 results have been solid. Everyone said he needed to work on the bike and he has. Yet he hasn't forgotten the run. Check out his 10k Olympic Distance speed, low 30s...
* Chris Lieto - 3 70.3 wins this year. Looked off form in Boise when he couldn't pull away on the bike, later found out he was injured. I believe he will still be able to ride away. Training with Meb and Ryan Hall was so helpful last year, he added another 6 weeks to his altitude training. I don't think Chris' performance last year was one and done.
* Andreas Raelert - 3rd last year after running with Crowie for most of the marathon. Looks stronger and fitter than last year. His brother Michael, no slouch himself, said he is in better form than last year. Torched a good field at Ironman Germany, winning in 8:05.
* Rasmus Henning - 5th last year after breaking his hand 3 weeks before the race. Went 7:52 at Roth this year. On form and hungry. Two dangerous components. Look for Rasmus to be in the mix on the back half of the marathon. That said, his 2:55 marathon must improve for a shot at the title.
* Chris McCormack - 4th last year despite a poor swim and cramping on the bike. Has had a disapointing year this year for his standards, but says he is in great form. His swim/bike is powerful and hard to argue his run. Does the former champ have one more in him?
* Dirk Bokel (sp) - Top ten last year, 2nd at Abu Dhabi this year. Young athlete with plenty of upside. What for Dirk to make a run at the podium.
* Terrenzo Bozzone - Young kiwi with a ton of potential. Top 15 last year on debut, won a ton of 70.3 events this past year. This kid hasn't put it together for the Iron distance this year and has spent 7 weeks on the island preparing for today. He is young and dangerous.
* Andy Potts - Olympic level swimmer that broke through for an impressive win at IMCDA this past year. He will be in the lead on the bike early, will be interesting to see how far up in the field he is at the start of the marathon. He has proved he is a contender with two top 10s in his first two attempts at Kona.

There are more than these guys as well. So who is going to win? Hard to argue against Crowie. I believe the top three will include him, Raelert and Henning. I will personally be routing for Lieto, and I believe he has a shot at winning if he is able to pull away like last year. However I feel the bike field will be a little quicker this year. I also think Bozzone will make a few moves today and test the vets. I also think this is Macca's last serious year to make a run at Kona. Do NOT count him out. My top five? Lieto, Henning, Raelert, Crowie, Potts. No particular order. Bozzone is my dark horse for the win, he just needs to get his pacing dialed in. I could continue to type, but instead...I'm going to turn on the race. Enjoy,

-T