Kona Prediction Time

It's back! Kona prediction time here. Every year I like to put together my Kona predictions. Check out last year's predictions (below in the link). I would say I was pretty spot on with the men! I didn't hear anyone predicting Macca was going to contend. So, what does this mean? I'm a tri nerd. I know way too much. But, that makes tomorrow's World Championship so much fun for me!! I love watching Kona. As I said last year, despite getting some of the predictions pretty close to accurate, it is such a difficult race to predict. Last year, who knew Chrissie would be pulling out?

http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1201535145390423776#editor/target=post;postID=5412085016247947272

Well here are my guesses at this year's race...

Women:
Miranda Carfrae - She owns the Kona run course marathon record. She is defending champ. I watched her run down an elite ITU (short course professionals) field in an Olympic Distance event (Hyvee) in convincing fashion. Her speed was remarkable. She has worked on her bike this year with Julie Dibens. She is my pick. I am willing to bet she will out run Chrissie tomorrow. The challenge will be not allowing Chrissie to get to far ahead of her on the bike.

Chrissie - Freak of nature. However, she recently had a bad accident on her bike. She seems fragile in her posts and communication. She had to pull out last year at last minute due to illness. I think she is kind of a mental case right now and believe unless he can get 5-10 minutes clear of Carfrae on bike she will be beat.

Dibens - She needs 15 minutes on the bike. I don't think she will get it. I figure she will come in 3rd-5th.

Notables - Caroline Steffan, Mary Beth Ellis (but might be burned out after so many Ironman races this year).


Men:
Wow, too hard to predict, but here are my guesses...

Craig Alexander - Easy pick, but did you see his run at 70.3 champs? 1:11 on a hilly course after a great bike? Dude is in good form. Only thing that might mess him up is he is swapping to another new bike right before Ironman. Hard to adjust and be comfortable so close to a 112 mile race, but he is a professional so I'm sure he will be fine.

Marino Vanhoenacker - I know he is the sexy pick, but how do you argue against him? He went 7:45 in Austria. If he can really out ride Crowie like last year I don't think he will be caught.

Timo Bracht - He won Lanzorate in record time. Great biker, but don't think he quite has the run to contend. I like him in 5-7th position.

Pete Jacobs - Amazing runner. If hadn't had a penalty last year would have been in contention for top 3. I feel he can run sub 2:40 tomorrow if in the hunt. Yes, sub 2:40. He will be in top 3 if he can hang on bike.

Andreas Raelert - Holds the record with 7:41 in Roth. Took Macca down to the wire last year and ultimately didn't have enough. Was injured earlier this year. I think he is going to have to push too hard on the bike and be forced to exert more energy than desired earlier in the run and falter to 4-7th spot.

Dirk Boekel - I had Dirk in my contention last year and I will do it again this year. If memory serves me right Dirk had a penalty last year too and still made top 7 or 8. He hasn't proved he can run 2:45 and he will have to tomorrow to make to 3. I feel like he has put in the work and will hang tough for most of the marathon. 3-5th place

Luke Bell - Love this guy. Saw him race in person in Lake Stevens. He has regained some old form. He will be in top 10.

Tim O'Donnel - First year in Kona. Great debut in Texas this year. Can run and put himself in the red zone for some time. I like him for top 10 in debut.

Eneko Llanos - Pulled away in Texas. Always a contender. Top 5 guy tomorrow is my guess.

Rasmus Henning - Seems like a mess to me. Could be wrong, but I think he still needs a year or two until he has the mental fortitude to go toe to toe late in the day at Kona.

So...if I had to pick an order

1) Crowie (won't make same mistakes as last year and allow field to ride away from him)
2) Vanhoenacker - Duels Craig to the end, but comes up short
3) Jacobs - Makes it to energy lab with Crowie and MV, but doesn't have final gear to pull away
4) Llanos - Steady and consistent get him back on podium
5) Boekel - Makes his first podium with awesome bike and solid run

So there you have it! Enjoy tomorrow. I know I will!!!

-T